Chapter 27
How to be a stock market guru and
get on CNBC
Back in the day, Louis Rukeyser hosted a PBS program called Wall Street Week each Friday evening. Watching it was an end of the week ritual for me.
He’d open with a commentary on the follies and foibles of the previous market week and then turn to a rotating panel of three Wall Street gurus for their take. Two of my favorites were Abby Joseph Cohen, a relentless Bull, and Marty Zweig, who was always “deeply worried about this market.”
Each guest was impeccably credentialed and Rukeyser made it a point to deftly schedule those who would each week present opposing views as to the market’s condition and direction. Sometimes one would even prove right.
His commentaries, questions and comments were always delivered with a wink, a smile and with great good humor. Tragically, he passed away in 2006 and the current generation of investors is left without his insights and wisdom.
The key thing his program and its parade of guests taught me is that, at any given time, some expert is predicting any possible future that could conceivably happen. Since all bases are covered, someone is bound to be right. When they are, their good luck will be interpreted as wisdom and insight. If their prediction happened to be dramatic enough, it could also lead to fame and fortune.
Every January, Rukeyser would have each of his guests predict the market’s high, low and ending point for the year. I forget his exact line, but after the predictions were in he’d say something like, “…with the understanding that even these experts could be wrong, there you have it.”
And he’d wink into the camera.
Come the following December, he’d salute those who’d come closest and chide the goats. All great fun, if not taken seriously. I’d even indulge in making my own annual predictions but never seriously and never with the idea of using them to get on TV. Even if I turned out to be spot on, mine wouldn’t get me interviewed on CNBC. Not dramatic enough. But then, that’s not my ambition. If it is yours, however, here’s (with my own knowing wink) how:
Step 1: Make a prediction for a huge short-term swing in the market. Up or down doesn’t matter. But down is easier and scarier. Scarier will get you more play if you’re right.
Step 2: Document the time and date you made it.
Step 3: When it doesn’t happen, wait a bit.
Step 4: Repeat Steps 1-3 until one day you’re right.
Step 5: Issue Press Release: Market Plunges!!!, just as (insert your name here) recently predicted.
Step 6: Clear your schedule for media interviews.
Step 7: Send me my 15% agent’s fee of your new-found wealth.
Be sure not to issue your press release until events prove you right.
Oh, and keep in mind that once your guru status is established, you’ll be expected to be able to repeat it. For months—maybe years—everything you say will be noted. Each misstep will be gleefully documented until you slip from view humiliated and discredited. But also rich if you’ve played your moment in the sun well.